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Creators/Authors contains: "Simons, Victoria F"

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  1. Abstract During their nonbreeding period, many species of swallows and martins (family: Hirundinidae) congregate in large communal roosts. Some of these roosts are well-known within local birdwatching communities; however, monitoring them at large spatial scales and with day-to-day temporal resolution is challenging. Community-science platforms such as the Purple Martin Conservation Association’s project MartinRoost and eBird have addressed some of these challenges by centralizing data collected from regional communities. Additionally, due to the high densities of birds within these aggregations, their early morning dispersals are systematically detected by weather radars, which have also been used to collect data about roost timing and location. An important issue, however, limits spatiotemporal scope of previous radar-based studies: finding the roost signatures on millions of rendered reflectivity images is extremely time-consuming. Recent advances in computer vision, however, have allowed us to reduce this effort. The rise of this technology makes it necessary that we assess whether our biological definition of a roost matches what the machine-learning models are capturing. We do so by comparing eBird detections of roosts in the Great Lakes region with those obtained by a human-supervised machine-learning model from 2000 to 2022. With more than two decades of data, we assess the ability of these two tools to detect roosts on a day-to-day basis, and we compare the phenology of dispersals to investigate whether radar detections correspond to swallow and martin roosts or if they are associated with other well-known birds that form large aggregations. Our comparison of these datasets strongly suggests that swallows and martins are responsible for the dispersals we observe on the radars from July to late September; however, the alternative species we examined could be causing some of the detections in October. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 4, 2026
  2. Abstract Long‐term monitoring of bird populations across scales is important in evaluating conservation targets and creating effective conservation strategies. For nearly six decades, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has served as the primary broad‐scaled source of relative abundance trends of swallows and martins in North America. Recently, however, it has become possible to obtain breeding population trends using semi‐structured eBird community science data. Moreover, weather surveillance radar data of swallow and martin roosting populations yield a third complementary source of trend information.Using results from these three approaches, we propose a novel method of spatially combining estimates of percent change per year into a probability of directional agreement and/or disagreement that describes (1) the direction of the trend within a given region, (2) the amount of evidence associated with the estimate and (3) how much uncertainty surrounds it. We focus our efforts on an area of high Hirundinidae concentration in the North American Great Lakes region and predict trends from 2012 to 2022.We found a high probability of agreement between all three sources about observed declines in swallow and martin trends in the region surrounding Lake Ontario and to the west of Lake Michigan. Focusing future research on these regions could improve our understanding of these declines and help build more targeted conservation initiatives.Synthesis and applications. Our data integration methodology allows managers to identify regions that accumulate evidence of concerning trends across multiple wildlife monitoring schemes. These regions can thus be prioritized in conservation and management efforts. This approach can be generalized to other sources of long‐term monitoring data of different species, at different stages of their annual cycle, in any geographic location. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 10, 2026
  3. Abstract In this study, we combined a machine learning pipeline and human supervision to identify and label swallow and martin roost locations on data captured from 2000 to 2020 by 12 Weather Surveillance Radars in the Great Lakes region of the US. We employed radar theory to extract the number of birds in each roost detected by our technique. With these data, we set out to investigate whether roosts formed consistently in the same geographic area over two decades and whether consistency was also predictive of roost size. We used a clustering algorithm to group individual roost locations into 104 high‐density regions and extracted the number of years when each of these regions was used by birds to roost. In addition, we calculated the overall population size and analyzed the daily roost size distributions. Our results support the hypothesis that more persistent roosts are also gathering more birds, but we found that on average, most individuals congregate in roosts of smaller size. Given the concentrations and consistency of roosting of swallows and martins in specific areas throughout the Great Lakes, future changes in these patterns should be monitored because they may have important ecosystem and conservation implications. 
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